BofA Securities recently downgraded Arm Holdings to Neutral ahead of its fiscal third-quarter 2026 results, citing near-term smartphone-related headwinds that could weigh on Arm’s client royalty revenue.
At the same time, SoftBank Group is drawing fresh attention as it steps up high-profile AI and energy commitments tied to OpenAI and SB Energy, which are reshaping how investors view its role as an AI and infrastructure holding company.
We’ll now examine how SoftBank’s heightened AI and energy investment push, including its OpenAI-linked commitments, could influence the existing investment narrative.
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To own SoftBank Group, you need to believe in its ability to compound net asset value through AI, infrastructure and portfolio monetization, while managing leverage and earnings volatility. The recent Arm downgrade highlights near term noise in one key asset, but for now it does not materially change the main near term catalyst, which is the upcoming Q3 2026 earnings on 12 February, or the central risk around sustaining earnings quality without large one off gains.
Among recent developments, SoftBank’s expanding AI and data center commitments linked to OpenAI and SB Energy stand out as most relevant here, because they reinforce how the group is repositioning itself as an AI and infrastructure holding company at the same time that investors are re pricing Arm related expectations. How those AI infrastructure commitments interact with any update on capital recycling and balance sheet strength at the February results will likely frame the next phase of the SoftBank narrative.
Yet beneath the AI buzz, the reliance on sizeable one off gains in recent earnings is something investors should be aware of…
Read the full narrative on SoftBank Group (it’s free!)
SoftBank Group’s narrative projects ¥8,650.2 billion revenue and ¥620.6 billion earnings by 2028. This implies 5.5% yearly revenue growth but an earnings decrease of ¥1,110.8 billion from ¥1,731.4 billion today.
Uncover how SoftBank Group’s forecasts yield a ¥22781 fair value, a 468% upside to its current price.
TSE:9984 1-Year Stock Price Chart
Three fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span about ¥342 to ¥22,781 per share, showing how far apart individual views can be. Set against SoftBank’s reliance on large one off gains in recent profits, this spread underlines why you may want to compare several independent opinions before forming a view on its longer term earnings profile and resilience.
Explore 3 other fair value estimates on SoftBank Group – why the stock might be worth over 5x more than the current price!
Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes – extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.
A great starting point for your SoftBank Group research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
Our free SoftBank Group research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual – the Snowflake – making it easy to evaluate SoftBank Group’s overall financial health at a glance.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include 9984.T.
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