(TNND) — Vital pathways to better-paying jobs for millions of Americans are at risk of crumbling if local leaders don’t manage how businesses implement artificial intelligence, according to a new report from Brookings Metro and Opportunity@Work.
The report identified “gateway” occupations that are under threat from AI and how disruptions in the years to come in those pivotal jobs could ripple up and down the employment pipeline.
“Workers who are currently in lower wage roles, who this has traditionally been their next step, suddenly that step is gone,” said Justin Heck, the senior director of research and data production for Opportunity@Work, a nonprofit focused on supporting skilled workers without college degrees. “Or employers who are hiring for high-wage positions, who use that as a talent pipeline, suddenly that pipeline is broken.”
Brookings Metro senior fellow Mark Muro said a lot of talk these days about AI disruptions in the workforce has focused on white-collar positions held by college-educated workers.
But skilled workers without degrees serve a vital role in the economy, and they’re often overlooked in the AI conversation.
Their new report focuses on those folks, more than 70 million of them in the U.S.
Over 15 million of those workers, coined “STARs” (skilled through alternative routes) by Opportunity@Work, are in jobs that are highly exposed to AI.
The researchers said 23 million of those workers have low adaptive capacity, meaning they have limited ability to weather job displacement from AI.
And 3.5 million face the double risk of high exposure to AI and low adaptability.
AI exposure isn’t inherently bad, Muro and Heck said.
AI could augment worker productivity. But the technology also comes with real risk of disruptions, including layoffs or reduced hiring.
And Muro said AI threatens to weaken the broader American promise of economic mobility.
When the gateway occupations are automated by AI, there’s not only an immediate impact to the workers in those roles but also a spillover effect, Heck said.
Muro and Heck said the highest rates of AI-related pathway exposure are in administrative, clerical and customer service gateway occupations in the Northeast and Sun Belt.
For example, a person who gets an entry-level receptionist job might work their way up to a “gateway” job, like a bookkeeping or auditing clerk, for about $24 an hour before eventually landing a “destination” job, like an auditor or construction manager, for around $40 an hour, according to the report.
“These are roles that are uniquely positioned within pathways, where there are lots of routes up from lower wages, and lots of routes to continue on to yet higher wages,” Heck said of the gateway jobs that could be replaced by AI. “So, they have this centrality in terms of mobility.”
Robust job pathways matter for individual worker mobility, but they matter for employers and regions just as much, Heck said.
There’s no simple fix for workers facing an uncertain career pathway because of AI, Heck said.
He said AI literacy matters, so engage with the tools.
Be curious and adaptable, he said.
And double down on what you’re good at, including leaning into your uniquely human strengths, Heck said.
Meanwhile, communities and policymakers need to take a coordinated approach to safeguarding their workforces, Heck said.
Experiment with solutions, and share what works with other communities.
Muro said local leaders should invest in targeted training aligned with future jobs and come up with ways to financially support workers facing disruptions.
The report includes a map showing where large numbers of skilled workers without college degrees occupy the vital gateway jobs, along with where those jobs are highly exposed to AI.
Sun Belt metro areas stand out for the highest AI exposure, reflecting fast-growing service economies with many of these workers in office support roles, according to the report.
And Northeast metro areas, such as Albany, New York (32.8%), Harrisburg, Pennsylvania (32.6%), and Providence, Rhode Island (30.1%), show large shares of skilled, noncollege-educated workers in highly exposed gateway occupations, given that pathways there are concentrated in administrative and clerical roles with high AI involvement.
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“I think it’s going to have to be all-hands-on-deck, but there’s clearly a very important state-regional focus,” Muro said of efforts to protect worker mobility against the potential threats from AI.